Monday, May 26, 2008

Don't Buy Iraqi Dinars


I had another event-filled weekend. This one started Saturday morning with the first sailing race of the season. We finished second of the six boats in our section and fourth of the thirteen in our fleet. Also, I didn't do anything stupid, so it was a good race. I think I might be better at this than I previously assumed, as I was commended for good sail trim and communication while a couple other guys who have been doing this for a couple years were making foolish mistakes. I've still got a lot to learn though.

After the race I headed over to Palermo's for Twinkie's graduation party. The open bar provided some much needed social lubricant and things turned out to be pretty fun. Twinkie announced she'll be working as the vault coordinator for Harry Winston's Chicago location, a job she was pretty much born to do. It turns out that it's still sometimes awkward to be friends with both Toners and Twinkie. Since that group hasn't really kept in touch with Toners, they were asking about what he was up to. I told them about his plan to move in with Otter and talked a little bit about her as well. She was somewhat dismissed with the requisite "yellow fever" jokes and things moved on. It was surprising to hear. It happened in almost the exact same way Carroll guys dismiss Twinkie, but it still somewhat shocked me and suddenly I was playing defense. The whole thing is made even more poignant by the fact that I was defending Twinkie to Otter only a week before. In the end, it was nice to see everyone, but it also became apparent that these people that I used to be good friends with have become merely acquaintances.

Sunday morning I drove down to Toners' lake house in Bloomington. I suppose a consequence of our man-dating is that I now have man-in-laws (That term doesn't work like I want it to, buy you get the idea.). It was a very relaxing weekend filled with boat rides, Cuba libres, cigars, music, and tons of delicious food. While sitting on the dock with P-dawg, he nicely expressed his appreciation for having me as a part of the family. I graciously agreed and said I felt as comfortable there as I did at home, but then he said he hoped it was even more so. I keep getting the feeling that he has very little respect for my parents and that he's supportive because he thinks I get no support at home. I don't like the way he plays this game and I find him to be inappropriately presumptuous. Sometimes I think he's far too used to be right and just assumes he's right all the time. I know all parents (and all people) have some flaws. My parents are humble enough to admit that of themselves; I don't know if P-dawg is.

This whole mess gets way more fun across generations. Toners does the same thing his dad does in some cases: spout bullshit. I don't really mind it when Toners does it and I often call him out on it. He's not nearly as much of a lawyer as his dad is, but something has definitely rubbed off. Far more interesting is the relationship between Grandpa Bob (Toners' mom's father; P-dawg's father-in-law) and P-dawg. From what I gathered in listening to Bob for thirty minutes, he's an arrogant asshole in love with his money. I admit I might be wrong, but that's at least the personality he wears on his sleeve. Funny enough, P-dawg doesn't buy the bullshit that Bob spouts anymore than I buy Toners'. After Bob and P-dawg volley back and forth with underhanded insults, P-dawg starts to tell his story of being an Iraqi millionaire. As he explains, he bought several million Iraqi dinars for about $5000 US with the presumption that when the US installs a stable government, the exchange value of the dinar will shoot up and be worth far more than $5000 US. At worst, he's out $5000. Any degree of research on the internet will reveal that the dinar is not an internationally regulated and traded currency and as such does not have a dynamic value. The value is currently set at 1197 dinar per US dollar and this is unlikely to change anytime soon. The only way to get the currency is through black market exchange as international banks will not trade unregulated currency. Typical black market rates charge up to a 30% mark up, so it's possible that his $5000 US instantly turned into $3500 the day he bought the currency. It is unlikely that the currency will significantly deflate anytime soon. Even with an established government, Iraq's economy will stay be based on oil. They have no significant industrial development that would allow them to export anything else. Thus, their international economy will go through very little change even with a massive regime overhaul. If a legitimate regulated economy is installed in Iraq, it is much more likely that the currency will undergo dollarization and P-dawg will have to buy back his American money at a loss.

No comments: